非主流投資人的家

昨（10/6）Tesla (代碼：TSLA) 股價大跌了14.5%...股價曾一度跌破150元....這就是快速成長股的特性...股票會大漲但也會暴跌...但只要基本面沒有改變（或）夢沒破....股價總是會再創新高.

 從剛公佈的今年第三季財報來看....營收(non-GAAP) 603 millions（如下表）...如果跟第二季比較成長了9.2%....毛利率也從第二季的21.9%上升到23.7%...不過需要繼續觀察的是Tesla model S 在美的銷售量是否趨緩...Tesla 今年第二季Model S 共銷售了5150台...第三季5500台...但若扣掉出貨到歐洲1000台...則Tesla Model S 第三季在美國國內的銷售量則只有4500台...比今年第二季少了650台...經營者把美國銷售減少歸因於產能和電池缺貨。Tesla Model S 是否一年能夠賣20000台以上是一個重要的指標...若未能超越此數字...表示現在Model S的買家可能只是狂熱的早期愛好者而已。

以下是在法說會CEO Elon Musk 針對分析師問到美國市場需求是否可以持續增加的對答：

 Dan Galves - Deutsche Bank

 Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the kind of the current level of demand. We have seen it's apparently the order to delivery time has expanded over the last couple of months, customer deposit, account went up quite a bit in Q3, and you kind of confirm that you are seeing demand increases. Can you quantify that all in terms of how many orders you took in Q3 versus Q2 or just in kind of a more order of magnitude is the U.S. demand continuing to increase? Where does Europe stand compared to where you were let's say at the same point in kind of the U.S. launch process?

 Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Product Architect

 U.S. demand of regular van has continue to increase. We have actually had to stop North American demand in order to feed Europe, so if we had European customers they have been waiting for long time, so we have had to constrain deliveries to North America in order to get the people their cars. They have been waiting some cases two or three years.

 I think, we could sustain 20,000 cars a year in North America, and maybe more than that, but it doesn't make sense for us to try to amplify demand if we aren't able to deliver to that demand. Basically we are happy, so where we are in Europe is we are still at the early stage. I mean, we are kind of in Europe where we were in U.S. maybe in January or February of this year, so European demand is - demand is like from sort of it's on the order of maybe 10,000 units a year, but again it doesn't make sense for us to try to drive that demand higher if we aren't able to meet it.

 We want to make sure that we are laying the ground work for future demand increase and I think we could get demand in kind of Greater Europe to be similar to that of North America and it seems like that seems pretty achievable to me.

 Tesla 預測今年第四季Model S 的銷售目標是6000台...毛利率25%。展望2014年歐洲年銷售10000台應該不是問題...中國大陸部份剛準備開始接受預訂...預期第二季可以拿到車子...初期銷售成績應該不至於太差才對...若美國能維持20000台/年...依產能規劃800台/週...明年Model S 銷售應該可達40000台...2015年（後年）Model x 電動休旅車就可以承接上了.

 我仍然看好Tesla....最近股價拉回不是壞事...可以降低平均持股成本...今年第四季應該可以等到不錯的加碼機會才對^^

本文僅屬個人觀點...只是提供給大家參考....任何投資都有風險...請小心謹慎.

五檔美股追蹤

1、  Tesla ( 代碼：TSLA) 10/03 收盤價 180.95美元

2、3D Systems Corp. (代碼：DDD) 10/03 收盤價 55.22美元

3、Clean Energy Fuel Corp. ( 代碼：CLNE ) 10/03收盤價 13.79 美元

4、Bona Film Group Ltd. (代碼：Bona) 10/03收盤價 5.61美元

5、Onganovo Holdings, Inc. (代碼: ONVO) 10/21收盤價 6.22美元